Palantir stock skids as exec says downbeat forecast is 'all the more disappointing' given opportunities ahead

Palantir revenue tops expectations amid surge in U.S. commercial business

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On the heels of a tough week for software stocks, Palantir Technologies Inc. came in just above expectations with its latest quarterly revenue performance while raising its outlook on an earnings metric.

The company reported a net loss of $123.9 million, or 6 cents a share, whereas Palantir
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logged a net loss of $102.1 million, or 5 cents a share, in the year-ago quarter. Palantir posted adjusted earnings per share of 1 cent, whereas analysts were expecting 2 cents.

The company also generated adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (Ebitda) of $87.2 million, down from $119.2 million a year prior but ahead of the FactSet consensus, which was for $60.2 million.

Revenue increased to $477.9 million from $392.1 million a year before, while analysts had been projecting $474.7 million. U.S. revenue was up 31% to $297 million. U.S. commercial revenue was up 53% from a year before, while U.S. government revenue was ahead 23%.

Chief Business Affairs Officer Ryan Taylor told MarketWatch that Palantir was “seeing the mission we’re focused on on the government side and then the momentum and scale on the U.S. commercial side.”

Palantir executives during the company’s prior earnings call expressed frustration over the timing of large government deals. This time around, Chief Financial Officer David Glazer told MarketWatch that the company’s government revenue, which exceeded $1.02 billion on a trailing-12-month basis during the third quarter, largely reflected renewals, expansions, and other “things we were expecting,” rather than “some of the work that we do hope will come.”

Executives reiterated their full-year revenue forecast, which ranges from $1.900 billion to $1.902 billion, “despite a negative $6 million currency impact since our prior quarter’s guidance.”

For the fourth quarter, executives anticipate $503 million to $505 million in revenue after “factoring in a negative $5 million currency impact since our prior quarter’s guidance.” Without those currency impacts, the company would have anticipated $508 million to $510 million in revenue, it said in the earnings release.

The FactSet consensus was $507 million in fourth-quarter revenue.

“The sustained increase in interest and orders for our software products, particularly in the United States, comes not in spite but because of the current moment of austerity and tightening credit conditions,” Chief Executive Alex Karp said in a letter to shareholders.

He then contrasted Palantir’s business to others in tech.

“The metaverse and other idiosyncratic pursuits of the technocratic elite may be luxury goods,” Karp said in his letter. “But foundational data integration and analytical software is not.”

Palantir executives now anticipate $384 million to $386 million in adjusted income from operations, whereas their prior forecast was for $341 million to $343 million.

Looking to the fourth quarter and into next year, the company is going to be “managing with discipline,” according to Glazer.

Executives maintained that Palantir’s financial positioning and business focus are strengths in the current climate. Palantir has $2.4 billion in cash with no debt and an eight-quarter streak of positive free-cash flow, said Glazer. Additionally, “some of the biggest catalysts for the business have been in really hard times.”

While executives “can’t talk about it too much,” Palantir is “involved in events that are transpiring in Europe,” he noted.

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