Veteran strategist Dennis Gartman says it’s still a bear market with no Fed pivot in sight.

He said the jobs numbers show there’s no Fed pivot in sight. Gartman said he expects not just a 75 basis point rate hike in September, but another 75 point hike in November and possibly a half-point increase in December. Stocks, however, moved off their lowest level of the session after the report was released, with the Dow industrials
DJIA,
+0.23%
actually ending in positive territory, while the S&P 500 posted just a 0.2% decline.

“I must admit that the rally has been a little more exuberant than I had thought. I was a little surprised by the response on Friday. Maybe it’s just a rally in a bear market, which I think is what it is, but I have to admit I have been somewhat taken aback by the fact the market has remained as strong as it has, given the fact that the yield curve is inverted and will continue to invert even more,” he said. He added he’s now “less amenable” to his previous prediction that the stock market would be down another 20% by the end of the year.

Gartman had advised the Akron endowment to take 12% of the portfolio out of equities at the end of December, and then recommended taking another 3% out of stocks, and into gold, in March. The S&P 500
SPX,
-0.16%
has dropped 13% this year, while gold
GC00,
+0.41%
has slipped 2%.

He acknowledged not everyone is seeing the world his way. “When Warren Buffett buys, one has at least to pay attention, but one doesn’t always have to follow him. You have to balance, here’s one of the greatest investors of all time doing something on the bullish side,” said Gartman. And he does see stocks worth buying. “I very much like dividend paying stocks,” he said. “I like things that if I dropped them on my foot, it will hurt. I like copper, I like trains, I like ships, I like things with movement.”

Gartman said the bond market is more likely to be right than the Fed on long-term growth. “I’ve only been doing this for 45 years, so I’m still a newcomer,” he said. “The bond market reversed over the last week. We had a new high in price, made a new low in yields, and suddenly on Friday, after the numbers came out, you had a technical reversal. I learned to pay attention to reversal days, and I pay real attention to reversal weeks, which are rare.”

The market

The mood is positive albeit not ebullient in the early going. U.S stock futures
ES00,
+0.46%

NQ00,
+0.62%
were higher, bitcoin
BTCUSD,
+3.39%
was moving up, and the dollar
DXY,
-0.27%
was a touch weaker.

The buzz

The Senate over the weekend narrowly passed the roughly $740 billion Inflation Reduction Act, setting the stage for the climate and prescription drug bill to get approval in the House later in the week.

Fed Gov. Michelle Bowman said over the weekend that she supports 75 basis point hikes until inflation is subdued. “My view is that similarly-sized increases should be on the table until we see inflation declining in a consistent, meaningful, and lasting way,” she said.

China recorded a record trade surplus in July after exports surged 18% year-over-year while imports grew just 2%.

CVS Health
CVS,
+0.38%
is trying to buy Signify Health
SGFY,
+2.32%,
a home health services company, according to The Wall Street Journal. Pfizer struck a $5.4 billion deal for Global Blood Therapeutics
GBT,
+33.03%.

Vaccine maker BioNTech
BNTX,
+1.48%
recorded worse-than-forecast profit and revenue in the second quarter.

Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway
BRK.B,
-0.29%
reported a $44 billion loss due to the declining value of its stock investments, though its operating profits rose.

Best of the web

In Colorado mountain towns, even living out of a car is gentrified (subscription required).

Women are now self-managing abortions since the repeal of Roe v Wade.

Baseball legend Pete Rose sparked controversy, after returning to Philadelphia to celebrate the 1980 Phillies team, with his remarks on an alleged relationship with an underage girl.

Top tickers

Here were the most active stock market tickers as of 6 a.m. Eastern.

The chart

So which companies are at risk from the 1% stock buyback tax included in the Inflation Reduction Act? Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, has produced this chart of sectors that have been more aggressive with buybacks. She doesn’t expect the legislation to have too large an impact — companies may feel their stock prices are too low at this point, even with a buyback tax.

Random reads

Here’s how Nicolas Cage blew a $150 million fortune.

Sweet corn is getting sweeter.

Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your email box. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern.