I was a young real estate agent in the 1970’s. If you are old enough, you may recall that in the late 1970’s we had high inflation rates, high gas prices, and high unemployment. The government was saying that our standard of living was on the decline. Interest rates for a loan went to a high of 21%. I remember once getting a loan for 11% and thinking that I was getting a deal. There was a lot of doom and gloom then. Sound familiar?
One day during the late 70’s I walked into the real estate office where I worked and there was a note on the bulletin board containing a short story. It was written by an anonymous author and posted by an anonymous source. No one ever took the time to explain the note, or the story, but the lesson I learned that day in the late 1970’s is one I still remember to this day. I’d like to share that story with you. It was a story about a man who sold hot dogs.
The Man Who Sold Hot Dogs
There was a man who lived by the side of the road and sold hot dogs.
He was hard of hearing so he had no radio.
He had trouble with his eyes so he read no newspapers.
But he sold good hot dogs.
He put up signs on the highway telling how good they were.
He stood on the side of the road and cried; “Buy a hot dog, mister?”
And people bought.
He increased his meat and bun orders.
He bought a bigger stove to take care of his trade.
He finally got his son home from college to help him out.
But then something happened.
His son said, “Father, haven’t you been listening to the radio?
Haven’t you been reading the newspapers?
There’s a great depression.
The European situation is terrible.
And the domestic situation is even worse.”
Whereupon the father thought, “Well, my son’s been to college, he reads the papers and he listens to the radio, and he ought to know.”
So the father cut down on his meat and bun orders, took down his advertising signs, and no longer bothered to stand out on the highway to sell his hot dogs.
And his hot dog sales fell almost overnight.
“You’re right, son” the father said to the boy.
“We are certainly in a great depression.”
This is a story about how people can convince themselves that business is bad and that they should give up and go home.
This past year of 2009 has been a year of ups and downs and there has been lots of talk about doom and gloom…very reminiscent of the late 1970’s. Almost everyone, not just the experts and analysts, is expecting things to be just as bad in 2010. However, in listening to all of this doom and gloom I have managed to sort through the noise and remember a couple words of wisdom and past experiences that help bring things into a clearer perspective for me.
As a child, my mother would often say, “Terry, the more you stir crap, the more it stinks” (I know that sounds a little coarse, but the wisdom I learned from my father is not fit for print). I think this saying holds especially true for the media, the pundits, and the talking heads. As the evening news filled our homes with talk of sub-prime mortgages and the newspapers told us that the housing market was going to crash, people acted. And soon the small fire was fanned into a full-blown inferno.
But was the media reporting the problem? Or were they creating the problem? While I can’t make the statement that the media and politicians are solely responsible for creating the current economic conditions, I do believe that they perpetuated the situation; perhaps even accelerated it. And this brings me to a second belief of mine, the belief in self-fulfilling prophecies.
Self-fulfilling prophecy – Causing something to happen by believing it will occur.
Isn’t that what happens when people get hold of bad news and stir things up to a frenzy? The analysts and experts (who listen to the same news that we do) tell the world that, “Yes, we are going to have a bad retail season.” What happens next? Shoppers don’t go to the stores so retailers don’t order as much inventory. As a result factories don’t build as much and cut costs by eliminating jobs. And the prophecy holds true.
I think the story I read that day on the bulletin board back in the late 1970’s sums up a lot of what we are experiencing today. I don’t pretend to be a financial wizard or an expert on politics, but I do believe that the majority of ones successes or failures depend on their outlook of the world and by maintaining the proper mental attitude. Not by being a pedestrian or victim to a situation out of their control.
The lesson I hope to leave you with is that you have to tone out all the negative noise of the greater world and FOCUS on your world and what works for you.
I am not advocating that you bury your head in the sand and ignore all sources of input. But rather that you take the information that is available to you and apply it to your present business model and present situation and move forward. Do not get caught up in the doom and gloom of the media and analysts.
I always say that analysts and attorneys are trained to find things wrong. Not that this outlook is always bad, but instead of looking to what can be gained in life, they focus on what can be lost. It’s not all their fault. Psychologists tell us that as humans we tend to expend 2/3’s more energy on things that we may lose rather than what we may gain. If you think about this fact, it is no wonder the world is in disarray.
When things get helter-skelter and it seems like I don’t know which way to turn, I personally filter out the noise and go back to the basics. What has worked for me in the past? What do I know and what am I good at? The answer for me as a business broker, has been working with buyers and sellers in finding solutions to their situations. This sometimes may mean helping them to sell their business and other times it may mean that I am able to bring a set of fresh eyes to their business and help them get back on track.
So if you currently find yourself in the same situation, lost and scared about the economic future, I suggest you do the same thing. Filter out the noise and go back to the basics. What works for you? What do you know and what are you good at?
I wish you all the best in 2010. And keep buying hotdogs.
