U.S. stock futures drop after long weekend as dollar rallies to 19-year high

U.S. equity markets were shut on Monday for the Independence Day holiday.

What’s driving markets

Risk appetite was muted as worries about slowing global growth in the face of high inflation and tighter monetary policy continued to rattle investors. Such concerns have already contributed to the S&P 500 falling nearly 21% in the first six months of 2022, its worst half since 1970.

Traders displayed a reluctance to make fresh bullish bets ahead of potential market-moving news over the next few sessions and the U.S. second-quarter corporate earnings season, which kicks off next week.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday will release the minutes for its June rate-setting meeting, while Friday sees publication of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. Both will be eagerly scanned by investors for clues to the likely pace of Fed rate rises. See U.S. economics calendar.

Indications that the U.S central bank is going to be more aggressive in its tightening cycle than its peers is boosting the dollar. The dollar index
DXY
rose 0.8% to 106.01, its highest level in more than 19 years, as the euro
EURUSD
slipped closer to parity with the greenback.

The buoyant buck may make life tougher for U.S. exporters, and analysts will be on alert for evidence of currency headwinds when companies reveal their earnings in coming weeks.

Wall Street analysts’ consensus estimate is for S&P 500 revenue to be 10.4% higher than in the same period last year, with 5.6% earnings growth, according to I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv.

“The V-shaped [stock market] recovery is dead this time. The past six months have seen the biggest shift in market sentiment in a lifetime and in Q3, the outlook for global companies’ earnings is not good. The bottom of this bear market could arrive later this year or far away as the first half of 2023,” said Steen Jakobsen, chief investment officer at Saxo Bank.

There was better news out of China. The world’s second biggest economy saw its service sector expand in June at the fastest pace in nearly a year. In addition, hopes were building that following talks with Beijing, the Biden administration may roll back tariffs imposed on some Chinese goods — potentially helping to crimp inflation imported into the U.S.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield
BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
is steady at 2.894%.

Other markets

• In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225
  JP:NIK
  rallied 1% to 26,423 and China’s Shanghai Composite
  CN:SHCOMP
  closed barely changed at 3,404. In Europe the Stoxx 600
  XX:SXXP
  fell 0.7% to 406.5, as investors continued to fret about the damage high energy costs are inflicting on the continent’s economy.